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Arpil 19, 2013
Idaho’s unemployment rate has dropped dramatically in the past 2½ years from a post-recession high of 8.8 percent in November 2010 to 6.2 percent in March 2013. Stronger-than-initially estimated job growth has reclaimed about half the 58,000 jobs lost during the worst recession since World War II. Prerecession seasonal employment patterns have re-established themselves, and there have been solid job gains since 2011. Total job loss hit 8.8 percent in June 2010 with the worst year-over-year loss at 7.4 percent in July 2009. In 2006, Idaho had been among the national leaders in job growth. After 30 straight months of year-over-year job loss, total nonfarm jobs moved back into the black in October 2010. Job totals hovered just above year-earlier levels until mid-2011 when they began to show marked growth. Population growth since the recession hit has been less than half the rate of the previous decade but still stronger than most of the rest of the nation Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau
The total value of all the goods and services produced in Idaho continued growing in 2011 to a record $57.9 billion after suffering its first decline in 47 years in 2009. The 3.4 percent increase from 2010 was a half point below the national increase, and the growth came from rural counties, where the increase in gross state product was double that of urban counties in 2011. While construction continued to decline statewide, dropping another 4.2 percent after falling 32 percent in 2010, manufacturing posted a 4.8 percent increase on top of the 21 percent jump in 2010. Utilities, finance, real estate and recreation enterprises joined construction in posting losses in 2011. All other private sectors of the economy experienced gains. Adjusted for inflation, Idaho’s gross state product finally recovered the last of the losses to the recession, rising 0.6 percent to nearly $51.5 billion, but unlike nominal gross state product, the inflation adjustment saw rural Idaho’s contribution in 2011 actually decline more than half a percentage point, to a large extent because of the high cost of fuel in areas where traveled distances are great. Urban Idaho posted a 1.1 percent increase in real gross state product, accounting for the statewide growth. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Continued solid paycheck withholding collections in March along with strong sales tax receipts pushed total state general tax revenue for the first nine months of the budget year 3.6 percent ahead of FY2012 and more than a percentage point higher than projected. The revenue target for FY2013 was lowered $12.7 million in anticipation of lower corporate income and sales tax receipts through winter and spring. But income tax receipts were almost twice the projection for February, completely offset underperformance earlier in the budget year. Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter announced in early December that the overall revenue forecast for FY2013 was scaled back from an increase of 3 percent to 2.7 percent and that the revenue forecast for FY2014 was downgraded from an increase of 5.9 percent to 5.2 percent. Individual income tax receipts for FY2012 were 1.8 percent ahead of the year before and 1 percent higher than the revised projection. Sales tax receipts also ran well above projections. A one-time multimillion-dollar windfall settlement with the nation’s mortgage brokers boosted revenues as well. Total receipts for FY2012 were 5.9 percent ahead of FY2011 and nearly 1.5 percent, or $35 million, higher than the amount lawmakers budgeted for FY2012. It was the second straight year of increased revenue after significant declines brought on by the recession. Source: Idaho Division of Financial Management
New business filings with the Secretary of State rose 1.8 percent to 22,344 in 2012, the first significant increase since 2006 and another indication of the slowly improving recovery. Filings had been essentially flat at under 22,000 in both 2011 and 2011 after dropping precipitously during the recession. The previous decline in filings before the most recent recession was in 2001 during that national recession. Source: Idaho Secretary of State
Job Growth
After shedding jobs steadily for two and a half years, the Idaho economy stabilized in late 2010 and began growing again in mid-2011, picking up steam at the end of 2012 to match or exceed national growth rates. Nationally, nonfarm jobs in 2012 exceeded the 2011 average by 2 percent. Growth was pegged at 2.4 percent in March. The national economy created jobs at a 1.5 percent clip. Idaho posted year-over-year job losses for 30 straight months until October 2010. Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Total employment in March was 650 lower than February, and the labor force fell for the third straight month, dropping 1,400 to under 772,000. That loss left the labor force below the level of January 2012, wiping out the modest gains during the previous 12 months. Unemployment was down 700, but combined with a smaller labor force, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 6.2 percent. That is the lowest rate in over four years. Total employment peaked at 728,400 in November 2007. It had been below 700,000 for 23 consecutive months before rebounding back above 700,000 in March 2011. Total employment was just over 724,500 in March. Nationally the unemployment rate fell a tenth in March to 7.6 percent. Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Regular weekly unemployment benefit payments continued running below the weekly levels posted since the Great Recession began. The number of claimants was only slightly higher than in 2007. Recession-driven unemployment sent regular jobless benefit claims and payments to an unprecedented $403 million in 2009, nearly double the previous record of $210 million in 2008. That was nearly double the $123 million in 2007. Another $240 million was paid in federal extended and supplemental benefits in 2009 when over 116,000 workers received assistance through the unemployment insurance program. Regular benefit payments totaled $214.8 million in 2011, 23 percent below the $278.3 million paid in 2010. Just over $195 million more was paid in federal extended benefits. As the jobless rate continued falling in 2012, so did benefit payments. That trend continued through the first 15 weeks of 2013. Regular benefit payments totaled $180.5 million in 2012, about 19 percent lower than a year earlier. Federally subsidized extended benefits fell to $118.3 million. Those benefits expire at the end of 2013. About 80,000 workers received benefits during 2012.
Benefit payments were double the revenues paid into the trust fund in 2008, triggering a 70 percent increase in all unemployment insurance tax rates in 2009 from the record lows the year before. But the higher rates in 2009 covered only a third of the regular benefit payments, prompting the state to begin borrowing from the federal government in June 2009 to continue paying benefits. Rates hit their legal maximum in 2010, but that was not enough to cover the anticipated $278 million in regular benefit payments that year. Thirty-two other states also went broke and borrowed from the federal government. Idaho borrowed $202 million between July 2009 and April 2010 and repaid the loan in September 2011 through a bond issue. The bonds will be repaid in 2015 with revenue generated from the regular employer tax rates. The bond issue avoided federal surtaxes being imposed on Idaho businesses. State tax rates remained at their legal limit in both 2011 and 2012 before falling 18 percent in 2013. Source: Idaho Department of Labor
After falling over 5 percent in 2010, personal income in Idaho bounced back in 2011, rising 5.4 percent before slipping to an increase of 3.3 percent in 2012. Strong earnings in the second half of 2012 partially offset weakness during the first six months. Solid investment earnings and extremely strong business profits offset limited growth in wages during the year. Nationally personal income was up 3.5 percent from 2011. Idaho personal income was falling until mid-2009 as the recession gripped the state economy. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Per Capita Personal Income
After falling over 6.4 percent in 2009, Idaho’s per-capita personal income rose 2.9 percent in 2010 and another 4.5 percent in 2011 to $33,326, up over $1,400 from 2010. The 3.3 percent increase in total personal income in 2012 was enough to finally push per capita personal income back above its prerecession level at $33,749. Nationally, per capita personal income rose 2.7 percent to $42,693. Idaho’s per capita income remained 49th among the states, lower than all others but Mississippi. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Idaho Exports
A half billion dollars in airplane sales to Singapore pushed fourth quarter exports over $2 billion for the first time and produced a record export year for Idaho businesses at more than $6 billion in 2012. That increase, however, overshadowed the fact that most sectors saw export totals decline from 2011 as the sluggish global economy continued to cut into foreign demand for Idaho goods and services. It was the third straight year for record export sales with total exports up $900 million in that time. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
A solid March following a strong January and February produced hotel and motel receipts of $71.8 million, nearly 17 percent ahead of 2012. That put the tourism industry on pace for a record year. Receipts in 2012 totaled $403 million, up 7.7 percent from 2011 and just $4 million short of the record set in 2008. Tourism has been estimated to account for about 5 percent of Idaho’s gross state product. Source: Idaho Tax Commission
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