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Idaho Economic Indicators
Aug 4, 2008
Job growth in Idaho slipped significantly during the first half of 2008 from among the highest in the nation during 2007. Nonfarm jobs grew just 0.7 percent during the first quarter from a year earlier and then fell 0.1 percent in the second quarter. For the first half of the year, job growth was an anemic 0.3 percent, ranking 34th nationally. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The total value of all the goods and services produced in Idaho exceeded $51.1 billion in 2007, up 5.6 percent from 2006’s $48.4 billion, which was sharply revised downward. The 2007 growth rate was 14th nationally. Idaho’s real gross state product rose just 2.4 percent to rank 16th nationally. The drastic reduction in 2006 gross state product resulted in only a 2.5 percent growth in real gross state product from 2005. Since 2003, Idaho’s inflation-adjusted gross state product has increased over 22 percent, 10 points higher than the national rate and the third highest rate in the nation. Durable manufacturing, real estate, health care, business services and retail trade were the major contributors to the state’s growth, offsetting marked declines in construction and financial services. Since 2003 durable manufacturing has grown over 66 percent, adjusted for inflation, fifth strongest in the nation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Idaho’s general tax collections in FY2008 exceeded $2.9 billion, but that was up just 3.5 percent from 2007 when tax receipts jumped 15.7 percent from 2006. Weakness, especially in sales tax receipts and income tax withholding, especially during the latter half of the fiscal year, reflected the general economic slowdown in the state. Source: Idaho Division of Financial Management
Business Growth
In 2007, 28,785 new businesses filed with the Secretary of State, down 3.7 percent from 2006 registrations and the first annual decline since the national recession in 2001 Source: Idaho Secretary of State
Job Growth
The Idaho economy shed 5,000 nonfarm jobs between July 2007 and July 2008, a 0.8 percent decrease to 666,500. Nationally, nonfarm jobs were down fractionally from a year earlier, falling just over 0.1 percent. Manufacturing, primarily in the high-tech sector, and construction lost almost 9,000 jobs combined. Gains on the service side of the economy, especially in health care and government offset a little more than half that loss.
High-tech employment averaged slightly higher in 2007 at 56,700, continuing to edge up from the bottom in 2003 at 52,127. Employment peaked in 2001 at 58,159. The sector has slowed with layoffs in late 2007 by Micron Technology and in early 2008 at AMI Semiconductor after its sale to ON Semiconductor. There was also concern about the impact of Hewlett-Packard restructuring its image and printer division.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
In July 2008, there were 722,000 people working in Idaho – 14,100, or nearly 0.2 percent, fewer than one year ago and 1,800 fewer than in June. It was the fourth straight month that employment has been below year-ago levels. Total unemployment at 31,100 hit its highest level since October 2004. Nationally, employment was down 226,000 from July 2007, or 0.15 percent, while unemployment hit a four-year high at 5.7 percent.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
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The unemployment rate at 4.1 percent in July was up three-tenths from June and a full percentage point since April. It broke a 37-month streak of rates below 4 percent. Unemployment in 2007 averaged a record low 2.7 percent, the third consecutive record low yearly average.
One of the 44 counties had an unemployment rate below 2 percent in July, and three more had rates below 3 percent. Six counties posted rates above 5 percent. A year earlier, one county was below 1 percent, three more were below 2 percent, and 26 more were under 3 percent. Boundary had the highest rate of 4.8 percent.
Strong employment that significantly reduced demand for unemployment benefits in 2006 weakened throughout 2007, driving claims up markedly as the year progressed. Overall, there were 511,659 weekly benefit claims in 2007, up 11.7 percent, and payments totaled $123.5 million, an 18.8 percent increase from the year before. That reflected higher benefit payments as wages rose as well as higher wages of those being laid off in the high-tech, construction and manufacturing sectors. The trend continued into 2008. Through the July, weekly claims were up 49 percent from 2007 while payments were 62 percent higher.
The unemployment insurance tax rate for 2008 dropped 30 percent overall for Idaho’s 50,000 covered employers after a 22 percent decline in 2007, all reflecting the strong expansion through much of 2007. Rising unemployment and increased benefit payments in 2008 were putting pressure on the fund and likely will force a substantial increase in the 2009 tax rate. The Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund balance at the end of June was $246.4 million, $40 million below the year-earlier balance.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Personal Income
Total personal income in Idaho slumped during the first quarter of 2008 after a strong performance in 2007. On an annualized basis, personal income totaled $47.9 billion, down from $48.1 billion in the final three months of 2007. Idaho was one of only four states to suffer a quarter-to-quarter decline. From the first quarter of 2007, Idaho personal income was up 4.3 percent, a half point below the national average to rank 34th among the states. Rising operating costs hit agriculture hard and sliding housing starts stifled construction.
Three of Idaho’s five urban areas saw personal income grow by over 9 percent from 2005 to 2006. The Boise/Nampa Metropolitan Statistical Area was up 9.9 percent, Coeur d’Alene recorded a 9.8 percent increase and Idaho Falls rose 9.1 percent. The Lewiston area matched the rate for all metro areas in the country at 6.6 percent while Pocatello fell short at 6 percent.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Per-Capita Personal Income
Idaho’s per-capita personal income increased 5.9 percent, or $1,674, from $28,274 in 2005 to $29,948 in 2006. Nationally, per capita personal income increased 5.6 percent, or $1,944 to $36,629.
In the urban centers, the Boise, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho Falls and Lewiston areas showed income increases from 2005 to 2006 above the national average for cities of 5.4 percent while Pocatello had a 5 percent increase. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
The weak dollar bolstered international sales of Idaho agricultural commodities, building materials, transportation equipment and chemicals during the first quarter of 2008, keeping exports at $1.3 billion for the three-month period. Increased sales in other areas offset the soft international market for computer chips. That was an 18 percent increase over the first quarter of 2007, when total sales for the year hit a record $4.7 billion.
Over 1,000 Idaho companies sell goods and services in foreign markets – the vast majority small and medium-sized businesses. And one of every seven manufacturing jobs in the state is linked to export sales.
Source: Global Trade Information Services of the U.S. Census Bureau
Despite higher gasoline prices, hotel, motel and private campground receipts in the first three months of 2008 played on the significant gains made in 2007. Receipts were 22 percent higher than during January-March 2007, which posted only a 10 percent increase from early 2006. New properties added to the growth in sales as well as higher rates for many hotels, motels and private campgrounds. The first quarter receipts totaled $29.9 million. Receipts for all of 2007 hit a record $389 million, up 6.4 percent from 2006. Tourism has been estimated to account for about 5 percent of Idaho’s gross state product. Sources: Idaho Travel Council; Global Insights’ Economic Impact of Tourism on Idaho’s Economy
Construction
Construction values across Idaho dropped for the second straight year in 2007, falling another 14.7 percent on the heels of a 4.1 percent decline in 2006, and continued to fall during the first four months of 2008. Total value in 2007 was just $3.3 billion, and building permits were off 11.8 percent. Commercial construction was up $215 million from 2006, but that was well short of offsetting the $822 million plunge in residential construction in 2007. The decline for the January-May period in 2008 was another 21 percent from a year earlier. The contraction in the industry took its toll on employment. In July 2008, construction jobs were more than 4,700 below the year-earlier level. Source: Wells Fargo Idaho Construction Report
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