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Idaho Economic Indicators
April 26, 2012
After losing 59,000 jobs in a recession that cut more deeply into Idaho than any other since World War II, the state economy has begun recovering. Prerecession seasonal employment patterns have re-established themselves, and jobs are showing year-over-year gains since the beginning of 2011. The seasonally adjusted unemployment, which stood at a record 8.9 percent in December 2010, had dropped to 7.9 percent in March 2012. Total job loss hit 8.7 percent in June 2011 with the worst year-over-year loss at 7.4 percent in mid-2009. In 2006, Idaho had been among the national leaders in job growth. After 30 straight months of year-over-year job loss, total nonfarm jobs moved back into the black in January 2011 and have been steadily increasing, exceeding 1 percent year-over-year growth since 2012 began. Population growth since the recession hit has been less than half the rate of the previous decade but still stronger than during the severe recession-decade of the 1980s. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau
The total value of all the goods and services produced in Idaho rebounded in 2010 to a record $55.4 billion after suffering its first decline in 47 years in 2009. The 3.3 percent increase from 2009 was a half point below the national increase. But while construction continued to decline, dropping another 4 percent after falling 19 percent in 2009, manufacturing posted a 7 percent increase to more than overcome the 5 percent loss in 2009. All other private sectors of the economy except real estate and corporate management posted gains after most suffered losses the year before. Adjusted for inflation, Idaho’s gross state product was up 2 percent after 2009’s 3.4 percent decline. Despite the recession, however, Idaho’s real gross state product grew 28.6 percent over the last decade, the eighth highest growth rate in the nation and 12 points higher than the national growth. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Individual income and sales tax receipts were running well ahead of year-earlier levels through the first nine months of the fiscal year, and total tax collections for the July-March period were nearly 3 percent ahead of the first three quarters of FY2011 with the major tax month of April still to come. The state projected revenue for the entire fiscal year to run 6.4 percent ahead of FY2011. Receipts were just over 3 percent ahead of the previous year in March 2011. State tax receipts totaled about $2.36 billion in FY 2011, which ended June 30, 2011, a 4.2 percent increase over 2010 and about $66 million higher than projected. Much of the surplus was previously earmarked for public education. Personal income and sales taxes were slightly higher than expected during FY2011. The recession’s drain on state tax revenues forced the annual general fund budget to be cut from over $2.7 billion in 2009 to under $2.4 billion in 2011 even after hundreds of millions of dollars in reserve cash and federal stimulus money were tapped. Source: Idaho Division of Financial Management
New business filings with the Secretary of State were essentially flat from 2010 to 2011. A total of 21,941 filings was up just 24 from the year before, which was essentially flat from 2009, and 2009 was down 15 percent decline in 2008. The previous decline before the most recent recession was in 2001 during that national recession. Source: Idaho Secretary of State
Job Growth
After shedding jobs steadily for two and a half years, the Idaho economy stabilized in 2011 and began to slowly grow. March’s nonfarm job totaled 600,900, about 3,000, or 1.5 percent, above March 2011. Nationally, nonfarm jobs exceeded the year-earlier total by almost 1.5 percent in March. Idaho posted year-over-year job losses for 30 straight months until January 2011. Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Total employment in March rose for the ninth straight month. About 2,500 more people were working than in February. The labor force also rose for the ninth month in a row, increasing 1,900. The combination cut the number of workers without jobs by 600, the eight consecutive monthly decline. That drove the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent, the lowest level in over two years. Total unemployment has dropped from a record 68,500 in November 2010 to 61,900 in March. Total employment peaked at 728,400 in May 2007. It was been below 700,000 for 22 consecutive months before rebounding back above 700,000 in February 2011. Nationally the unemployment rate was down a tenth to at 8.2 percent. Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Unemployment benefit payments continued abating in 2012 after hitting unprecedented levels in 2009. Recession-driven unemployment sent regular jobless benefit claims and payments to $403 million in 2009, nearly double the previous record of $210 million in 2008, and that was nearly double the $123 million in 2007. Another $240 million was paid in federal extended and supplemental benefits in 2009 when over 116,000 workers received assistance through the unemployment insurance program. Regular benefit payments totaled $214.8 million in 2011, 23 percent below the $278.3 million paid in 2010. Another $195.4 million was paid in federal extended benefits. The trend has continued into 2012. Regular benefit payments totaled $81.1 million through mid-April, nearly 16 percent lower than a year earlier. About 17,000 workers were receiving regular state unemployment benefits in mid-March, down 19 percent from a year ago. Another 11,600 were still collecting federal extended benefits, and nearly 14,000 have exhausted all benefits without finding work.
Benefit payments were double the revenues paid into the trust fund in 2008, triggering a 70 percent increase in all unemployment insurance tax rates in 2009 from the record lows the year before. But the higher rates in 2009 covered only a third of the regular benefit payments, prompting the state to begin borrowing from the federal government to continue paying benefits in June 2009. Rates hit their legal maximum in 2010, but that was not enough to cover the anticipated $278 million in regular benefit payments that year. Thirty-two other states went broke and borrowed from the federal government. Idaho borrowed $202 million between July 2009 and April 2010 and repaid the loan in September 2011 through a bond issue. The bonds will be repaid in 2015 with revenue generated from the regular employer tax rates. The bond issue avoided federal surtaxes being imposed on Idaho businesses. State tax rates have remained at their legal limit since 2010 and will begin dropping in 2014 if not before. Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Personal Income
After falling over 5 percent in 2010, personal income in Idaho bounced back in 2011, rising 5.4 percent. Both wages and business profits grew during the year although profits gained 13 percent while wages rose just over 2 percent. Personal income hit a record $52.8 billion. Nationally, personal income was up 5.1 percent. Personal income was falling until mid-2009 as the recession gripped the Idaho economy.
Personal income in rural Idaho rose 2.6 percent in 2010 after plunging 3.6 percent a year earlier. In the five urban areas, personal income was up 2.7 percent in 2010, offsetting the 2.0 percent decline in 2009. Personal income statewide was up 2.7 percent in 2010 after falling 2.5 percent in 2009, the first annual decline in personal income in Idaho since 1953. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
After falling over 6.3 percent in 2009, Idaho’s per-capita personal income rose 3.1 percent in 2010 and another 4.5 percent in 2011 to $33,326, up over $1,400 from 2010. Nationally, per capita personal income rose 4.3 percent to $41,663. Idaho’s per capita income remained 49th among the states, lower than all others but Mississippi.
Per capita income in urban Idaho rose 2.6 percent to $32,666 in 2010 after falling over 6 percent the year. Rural Idaho’s rebound from a 6 percent decline in 2009 was even stronger. Per capita income in the rural counties jumped 3.4 percent to $30,439.
Idaho's 33 rural counties combined saw a per capita income gain of 3.9 percent to $29,627 in 2008, but that was only half the percentage increase rural Idaho saw in 2007. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Idaho Exports
Although Idaho exports slipped during the fourth quarter, the decline was not sufficient to keep foreign sales from setting a record of $5.89 billion in 2011. That was a 14.3 percent increase from the previous record of just under $5.2 billion in 2010. Solid computer chip sales combined with record sales of silver, lead and other mining products and near-record agricultural exports to push exports to the record. Exports had fallen dramatically during the first half of 2009 when the bottom fell out of the computer chip market. Semiconductors and other high technology goods have been strong during 2011 along with agricultural exports and foreign sales of precious metals. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Tourism slipped in February from the robust month a year earlier. Lodging revenues totaled $20.4 million, about $300,000 less than January and almost 40 percent below February 2011. The two-month total was 9 percent below the first two months of 2011. Receipts totaled $374.3 million in 2011, 4.1 percent of 2010. That is still short of record revenue of $407 million in 2008. Tourism has been estimated to account for about 5 percent of Idaho’s gross state product Source: Idaho Tax Commission
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